Should You Wait for a Better Market Before Selling Your Business?

September 30, 2026

Canadian small-business confidence just took a sharp turn lower. But does that mean business owners thinking about selling should wait for a better market?

It is a question we hear regularly.

When interest rates are high, confidence is weak, tariffs are in the headlines or economic forecasts become less certain, the instinct can be understandable:

Maybe I should just wait a year or two. Surely the market will be better then.

Maybe.

But there is another possibility: the market gets better and your business gets worse.

And when it comes time to sell, the second part of that equation may matter considerably more than the first.

Canadian Business Owners Are Getting Nervous

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business released its September 2026 Business Barometer on September 24, and the change was significant.

CFIB’s 12-month optimism index dropped 10 points to 47.9, while its three-month index fell 10 points to 43.3. An index below 50 means more business owners expect weaker performance than stronger performance over the applicable period.

Businesses involved in international trade are particularly cautious. The index for exporters was just 38.6, compared with 43.5 for importers. Alberta’s provincial reading declined to 52.3.

There are some tangible reasons behind the pessimism.

Fuel has become the leading cost constraint nationally, affecting 62% of respondents. Weak demand is the leading growth constraint, reported by 49% of businesses. Meanwhile, businesses indicated average planned price increases of 3.3%, up from 2.6% in August.

Those are meaningful numbers.

But they do not mean your business is suddenly worth 10% less because a confidence index dropped 10 points.

Sentiment Isn’t Valuation

Business valuation does not work like the stock market. There isn’t a ticker at the bottom of the television screen telling you that privately held Canadian businesses were down 4% today.

A buyer is ultimately buying the future economic benefits of a particular business.

That means looking at things such as maintainable earnings, cash flow, growth prospects, customer concentration, management depth, capital requirements, competitive position and risk.

The broader economy matters because it can influence those factors. But economic sentiment and business value are not the same thing.

The important question is therefore not simply: “Will the market be better next year?”

It is: “What is likely to happen to my business between now and next year?”

That is a much more useful question.

Waiting Isn’t a Strategy

Suppose you own a business generating $1 million of normalized EBITDA today.

You decide not to sell because economic confidence is poor. You expect buyers might be more enthusiastic in two years.

That could be exactly the right decision – if you use those two years well.

Perhaps EBITDA grows from $1 million to $1.3 million. You reduce dependence on yourself. You lock in important customers. You improve margins. You build a stronger management team. You clean up the financial statements and eliminate unnecessary working-capital problems.

Now you potentially have two things working in your favour: a stronger company and, perhaps, a stronger transaction market.

That is very different from simply waiting.

Imagine instead that EBITDA slips from $1 million to $800,000. A major customer leaves. Margins contract. A key employee departs. Equipment requires replacement. Or the owner becomes tired and starts spending less time on the business.

Even if buyer confidence improves, you may be bringing a materially weaker asset to that improved market.

Time itself does not create value. What you do with the time can.

The Danger Of Trying To Pick The Top

Business owners sometimes approach selling their company the way investors approach selling a stock. They want to sell at the top.

There is one obvious problem: we generally don’t know where the top was until after it has passed.

A business sale also takes time. Preparing the company, going to market, negotiating a transaction, completing due diligence and getting to closing can take many months.

Trying to identify the perfect economic window, begin the process at exactly the right moment and complete the transaction before conditions change again is a difficult strategy.

There will almost always be something to worry about: interest rates, inflation, tariffs, an election, a recession, labour shortages, a geopolitical crisis or a new competitor.

The economy rarely sends business owners an engraved invitation saying:
“Congratulations. This is the optimal month to sell your company.”

Sometimes Waiting Absolutely Makes Sense

None of this means an owner should rush to market simply because economic confidence has weakened. There are plenty of circumstances where delaying a sale can create substantial value.

Waiting may make sense when there is a realistic opportunity to:

• materially improve sustainable earnings;
• resolve a temporary earnings disruption;
• reduce customer or supplier concentration;
• develop management that makes the company less dependent on the owner;
• complete an expansion or capital project that has a demonstrable return;
• improve financial reporting;
• secure important contracts or leases;
• address legal, tax or corporate-structure issues before a transaction; or
• establish a stronger track record that a buyer can actually underwrite.

There is an important distinction, however.

Those are reasons to wait because you have a plan – not because you have a prediction.

Buyers Don’t Just Buy Last Year’s EBITDA

This becomes particularly important if today’s weaker business confidence eventually translates into weaker operating performance.

A buyer looking at a business in 2027 or 2028 isn’t necessarily going to ignore declining results because 2026 was a difficult economic year.

If revenue has declined, margins have compressed or forecasts have become less credible, the buyer will want to understand why. Was it temporary? Was it industry-wide? Has the problem been corrected? Or is this the beginning of a new earnings level?

Similarly, a valuator considering maintainable earnings must determine what level of economic benefit is reasonably expected to continue.

That is where today’s confidence numbers become relevant to valuation – not because sentiment directly changes the value of a company, but because prolonged weak conditions can eventually change the earnings and risk underlying that value.

There Is Another Side To A Softer Market

A weaker environment is not universally bad for sellers. Good businesses can stand out.

A company that continues growing while competitors struggle tells buyers something important about the resilience of its earnings. A business that maintains margins despite input-cost pressure may demonstrate pricing power.

A company with recurring revenue, a diversified customer base, strong management and a healthy balance sheet can become particularly attractive when buyers are more selective.

In other words, difficult conditions sometimes help distinguish a genuinely strong business from one that merely benefited from a strong economy. That distinction can matter enormously in a transaction.

So, Should You Sell Now Or Wait?

There isn’t a universal answer. But there is a better framework for making the decision.

Don’t begin by asking whether Canada’s economy will be stronger in 12 or 24 months.

Ask: If I wait 24 months, what specifically will be different about my company?

• Will earnings be higher?
• Will risk be lower?
• Will the company depend less on you?
• Will there be a stronger management team?
• Will customer concentration improve?
• Will recurring revenue increase?
• Will the financial statements tell a cleaner story?
• What has to go right for waiting to pay off – and what could go wrong while you wait?

Those questions can be modelled. For example, an owner considering a sale today versus two years from now can compare the additional after-tax proceeds that might result from higher earnings or a stronger valuation multiple against the risks and cash flows associated with continuing to own the business.

That turns “I think I’ll wait for a better market” into an actual business decision.

Build A Better Business, Not A Better Forecast

CFIB’s September numbers deserve attention. A 10-point decline in 12-month confidence is meaningful, and internationally exposed businesses are clearly feeling considerable uncertainty.

But economic forecasts are notoriously difficult to turn into precise transaction timing. Owners have considerably more influence over their own companies.

If you believe you are two or three years away from selling, those years can be extraordinarily valuable. Improve earnings. Reduce risk. Build management. Clean up the balance sheet. Deal with customer concentration. Document processes. Get your corporate and tax planning in order.

Then, whether the market improves dramatically or only modestly, you have something better to sell.

And if you’re already considering a transaction, don’t automatically assume today’s headlines mean you should wait. First determine what your business is worth today, what is driving that value, and what realistically could increase or decrease it if you continue to own it.

The objective isn’t to perfectly time the market. It’s to be ready when the time is right for you – with the strongest business you can reasonably bring to market.

EVCOR provides business valuation, transaction advisory and succession planning services to business owners across Canada. If you are considering selling – whether that is six months or five years from now – understanding what drives the value of your business is a useful place to start.